Bourbon Bros Won’t Give Up Hope The Trade War Will Deliver

By Richard Thomas

During the last couple of weeks I have seen reports that bottles which had been unobtanium for year, in some cases since before the Pandemic, were back on store shelves. Some of these appeared in my social media and other instances were sent to me, but examples included shelves stocked with items like Blanton’s or Eagle Rare at something approaching MSRP; a Kroger liquor store with cases of Col. E.H. Taylor Small Batch actually at MSRP; and examples of W.L. Weller 12 sitting behind locked cabinets for $150.

Predictably, toxic bourbon nerds who occupy that intersection of MAGA and bourbon fandom * began crowing that Trump’s Trade War was finally paying off. “The exports are coming home, hallelujah!” they declared. Most of them were the same folks who thought the first Trump Trade War (started in 2018) was going to put Pappy Van Winkle on the shelves. In these jingoistic minds, the only reason any of the bottles they desire are overpriced/not on shelves is because those bottles were shipped overseas to–gasp–foreigners. So, for much of the last decade they have been expecting retaliation against Trump’s various tariffs to place that whiskey back to within easy reach.

Tariffs did not do that. That one person was able to find Eagle Rare on liquor store shelves while another finds a pallet’s worth of Taylor Small Batch a thousand miles away is only marginally, if at all, connected to the trade war. This humble editorial, however, is not for the folks who believe Trump will deliver them Pappy Van Winkle, since they also likely believe he will send them a $5,000 check in December. If the last decade should have taught the rest of us anything, it is that such people are beyond the reach of their own lived experience, nevermind facts or reason. No, this editorial is for you, to help explain what may or may not be going on.

Cross Your Fingers!
Here are a few salient points to draw from posts in forums, Reddit, Facebook and social media about the exciting reappearance of certain bottles. First, these are localized examples and do not yet represent a broad national trend. I hope that it does, but so far the reports are usually accompanied by comments from others to the effect of “nothing like that is happening where I live.”

Second, this is a new phenomenon. It may not be represent a lasting return of certain scarce bottles to the market, either locally or nationally. I hope that it does, but don’t count those chickens just yet.

Third, the examples I have seen have been entirely Buffalo Trace brands, and moreover the kind of Buffalo Trace brands that were always supposed to be premium, but otherwise totally normal expressions. Some brands are still steeply marked up: W.L. Weller 12 is still officially just $45 but commands a market price of $150. That is half as much as the $300 demanded during the peak Bourbon Boom year of 2023, but is still triple MSRP. The hot annualized limited editions that so many enthusiasts are passionate about, including those from other companies, are either still absent from shelves or else command painfully high mark-ups at retail (such as the two bottles of King of Kentucky I recently saw marked at $699).

This Has Nothing To Do With The Export Collapse
Something I have underlined since 2018 is that only a minority portion of American whiskey is exported; the overwhelming majority of it stays here in the USA. At the end of the Biden Administration, the broad estimates I saw pointed to approximately 70% of American Whiskey staying in the US, while about 30% was exported. In 2025, Trump’s trade tantrums caused a 19% drop in exports. This is horrible for the American whiskey industry, contributing to slumping sales numbers overall and knocking the leg out from their efforts to diversify markets, but except for craft producers it represents a relatively small shift in what bottles are where.

First, most of it does not “come home.” Instead, producers simply send less in the future, for logistical reasons, until sales equilibrium is reached. Moreover, 19% of a 30% share represents just a few points of movement relative to the entire market. A few percentage points might mean a bottle or two popping up here and there more often. What it does not explain is a shelf full of Blanton’s or a pallet of Colonel E.H. Taylor Small Batch appearing at a supermarket liquor store for the first time in a decade in the form of a pallet-load.

Also, the trade war itself is fluid and mercurial. The US and UK eliminated all tariffs on whiskey this year; the courts have struck down most of Trump’s tariffs, which would eventually cause reciprocal foreign tariffs to fall in turn; and any new events in the ongoing trade war are dependent on the whims of the worst president in American history.

Reckoning the bourbon industry picture is complicated due to lack of hard and specific data. Take Jim Beam, for example. It’s part of a publicly traded international company, but even its public statements do not reveal how much Knob Creek 21 Year Old is sent to which countries. Sazerac, which is privately owned but most at issue here, is privately owned and even more opaque.

But in general, it is important to remember in reading these numbers and situations that the bread and butter of any major spirits company is always going to be in its mass market and (normal) premium products (i.e. the stuff it sells in volume). A company may make a nice buck from its ultra-premium releases, but these are small in volume and not necessarily offering a greatly improved profit margin. In an example already described, Sazerac has W.L. Weller 12 priced at $45, so it will be distributors and/or retailers cashing in on the over $100 difference in price you pay to get it on demand at the liquor store.

This underscores a fundamental point taught in Econ 200: Microeconomics: income elasticity. Basically, shopping for a luxury good is not the same as shopping for everyday items. If someone is chasing a bottle of Old Forester Birthday Bourbon and expects to spend $500 on that bottle, they probably aren’t going to balk if they must spend $600 to get it. Ergo, for that kind of bottle tariffs are a minor or even negligible issue, and the overwhelming impact of the drop in exports has been in mass market and premium grade whiskeys, not the truly hard to get stuff.

Look To Distributors And Retailers Instead
The disappearance of what should have been normal, premium Buffalo Trace expressions from store shelves came in two stages. As the Bourbon Boom accelerated after 2015, expressions like Weller 12 and Col. E.H. Taylor became scarce. As Buffalo Trace became the object of feverish obsession with a broad swathe of bourbon nerdom, so too did demand rapidly outstrip supply, taking one bottle after another off shelves. However, as the Pandemic drinking binge drove the Bourbon Boom on to its bubble-like peak, even brands like Blanton’s disappeared. Buffalo Trace Bourbon itself, the distillery’s flagship expression, almost disappeared in many markets around the US.

That latter, peak Bourbon Boom situation cannot be explained by mere demand. I have long suspected that some distributors and retailers around the country were engaged in hoarding, holding back supplies of Buffalo Trace premium products to artificially inflate prices. As insane as the idea of Blanton’s being impossible to find in liquor stores was, the $200 price tag attached to the bottles that could be obtained is even more bonkers. I cannot prove it, but the scenario better explains current circumstances; the hoarders have gouged the public as much as they think they can get away with and, having done so, are releasing their supplies.

Rising Prices, Looming Recession
The other problem with having the worst president ever in office is that inflation, which had been tamed by the end of the Biden term, is roaring back to life. That in turn is strangling the economy. People have less disposable income, less consumer confidence, and are worried about the future.

All that points to another principle taught in that Economics 200 class: when money is tight, people look at the availability of a product like, say, Blanton’s differently. That it was available in 2024 only if you were willing to pony up $200 and is now on the shelf at $90 (only somewhat above MSRP) does not matter to a man who does not have $90 to spend because filling up his gas tank, the trip to the supermarket and his health insurance bill emptied his pocket. That guy will probably be rediscovering the virtues of Maker’s Mark.

So, another factor much larger than declining exports is the faltering economy. As part of my running discourse on this matter, I have made this point over and over: a modest increase in supply (whatever the source) makes no practical difference to availability and price if it is vastly outstripped by demand. Less disposable income attacks that demand directly, resulting in fewer people competing for the same number of bottles. That has a very real and direct impact, and everyday life screams it is going on right now… but the kind of person who thinks Trump won the trade wars and he delivered Blanton’s back to you as a bonus, is also probably very much in denial of everyday life.

Supply Increasing
Another, very overlooked factor magnitudes of order greater than any supposed returned export bottles is the bourbon industry spent the whole of the Bourbon Boom trying to catch up with demand by expanding output. That decade-long process yielded results, which is why all producers are cutting production in some fashion as a response to falling sales.

Since it is Buffalo Trace that is primarily under discussion, in 2015 that distillery began building $1.2 billion in infrastructure to support expanded production, including a second, duplicate stillhouse that went online 2023. Before that new stillhouse was fired up, expanded output took the form of more shifts, as was the case at all of the Kentucky Majors (Kentucky’s big legacy distillers). If you work the timeline of expansions, this increased output first should have first begun appearing in earnest around the time that Benchmark, Buffalo Trace’s bottom tier brand, was revamped. That came first because it draws on younger stocks of whiskey than the premium expressions. Those followed in turn just a few years later. Looking back on predictions, now is when we were expecting Trace’s expanded production to start being felt. In other words, what Buffalo Trace has been promising us for many years is finally happening: they’re at long last catching up with demand.

In sum, what we’re seeing with brands like Weller, Eagle Rare, Blanton’s and other Buffalo Trace brands may or may not be the start of a broader return to availability for these brands. It should be and I hope it is, but that is not certain yet. The trade war may or may not have anything to do with it, and if it did then the impact is the smallest of all the known factors. The end of hoarding, worsening economy and expanding output reaching shelves after several years of aging are each have a much bigger impact in and of themselves. Combined, they could push the market into doing the things we’re now seeing.

• Editor’s Note: As I was writing this piece, a fire was reported at Glenn’s Creek Distilling. Some of the same toxic bourbon nerds who believe Daddy Trump will give them their bottles back on demand and at MSRP alleged–with no proof–the fire was arson for insurance purposes. It has since turned out the buildings damaged in the blaze were both empty and uninsured.